Median global warming across IPCC Sixth Assessment Report scenarios in categories C1 to C8.

The combined p5-p95 warming range (Surface Temperature (GSAT) relative to 1850-1900 ) across scenarios each category C1- C8 are shown as transparent area, with solid lines representing:

• Current policies - Scenario C7 - Implementation of current climate policies (mostly as reported in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)), neglecting stated subsequent goals and objectives (e.g., for 2030); only Gradual Strengthening after 2030; grey COVID recovery
• Moderate action - Scenario C6 - Implementation of current policies and achievement of 2030 NDCs, with further strengthening post-2030. Similarly to the situation implied by the diversity of NDCs (both policies and pledges), a fragmented policy landscape remains; mixed COVID recovery
• Strong, immediate mitigations - Scenario C1 - Illustrative mitigation scenario with succesful, immediate actions covering renevable energy, lowering demand, sustainable development and inequality.

Read the full IPCC Working Group III (2021) Report for nuance in understanding Illustrative Migration Pathways, modelling categories and climate policy context.

Data source